One of the themes of SBM has been, since the very beginning, how the paradigm of evidence-based medicine discounts plausibility (or, perhaps more appropriately, implausibility) when evaluating whether or not a given therapy works. One of our favorite examples is homeopathy, a therapy that is so implausible on a strictly scientific basis that, for it to work, huge swaths of well-established science supported by equally huge amounts of experimental and observational evidence would have to be found to be all in serious error. While such an occurrence is not per se impossible, it is incredibly unlikely. Moreover, for scientists actually to start to doubt our understanding of chemistry, biochemistry, pharmacology, and physics to the point of thinking that our understanding of them is in such serious error that homeopathy is a valid description of reality, it would take a lot more than a bunch of low-quality or equivocal studies that show no effect due to homeopathy detectably greater than placebo.
On Friday, Kim Atwood undertook an excellent discussion of this very issue. What really caught my attention, though, was how he educated me about a bit of medical history of which I had been completely unaware. Specifically, Kim discussed the strange case of John Lykoudis, a physician in Greece who may have discovered the etiology of peptic ulcer disease (PUD) due to H. pylori more than a quarter century before Barry Marshall and Robin Warren discovered the bacterial etiology of PUD in 1984. One reason that this story intrigued me is the same reason that it intrigued Kimball. Lykoudis’ story very much resembles that of many quacks, in particular Nicholas Gonzalez, in that he claimed results far better than what medicine could produce at the time, fought relentlessly to try to prove his ideas to the medical authorities in Greece at the time, and ultimately failed to do so. Despite his failure, however, he had a very large and loyal following of patients who fervently believed in his methods. The twist on a familiar story, however, is that Lykoudis may very well have been right and have discovered a real, effective treatment long before his time.