The 2012 election campaign is in full swing, and, for better or worse, health care is one of the major defining issues of the election. How can it not be, given the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), also colloquially known as “Obamacare,” was one of the Obama administration’s major accomplishments and arguably the largest remaking of the American health care system since Medicare in 1965? It’s also been singularly unpopular thus far, contributing to the Republican takeover of the House of Representatives in the 2010 elections, as well as the erosion of Democratic control of the Senate. Given that this is a medical blog dedicated to discussing the scientific basis of medicine and not a political or health policy blog, I am not going to go into the reasons for a lot of this. What I am going discuss is a recent eruption of the central problem that led President Obama to make the PPACA one of the central policy initiatives, if not the central policy initiative, of his first term. That problem is the issue of people without health insurance, who number roughly 50 million, with a further estimate that 86.7 million people were uninsured at some point during the two year period from 2007 to 2008, representing about 29% of the total U.S. population under 65.
The question that bubbled to the surface last week in the form of a statement by Republican challenger Mitt Romney, and a tear-inducing op-ed piece published yesterday in the New York Times by Nicholas Kristof entitled A Possibly Fatal Mistake, is what the health impact of not having insurance is for those millions of people. This is a question that can be addressed scientifically and is, despite its politically charged nature, correctly within the purview of science-based medicine. What to do about it, in contrast, is a matter for politics and public policy. So first let’s examine the question.