“Conversation about the weather is the last refuge of the unimaginative.” – Oscar Wilde
I will state my bias up front. I am convinced by the preponderance of data in favor of man made global warming. At the most simplistic level, I can’t see how converting humongous tons of fossil fuel into CO2 and dumping it into the the atmosphere cannot have effects on the climate. To my mind its like determining vaccine efficacy or evolution. Plausible mechanism(s), good basic science, multiple studies using different lines of evidence that all come to the same conclusion. There are lots of fine points and nuances to be worked out, but the basic truth is reasonable and well defined. Infectious diseases lend some validation to the concept that the world is warming, since with global warming comes a variety of infectious diseases.
It is one big IF:THEN statement. IF global warming, THEN infections. Of course if the IF is not true, then the THEN doesn’t follow.
Why is my mind so clean and pure? Because I am always changing it.
In medical school the old saying is that half of everything you learn will not be true in 10 years, the problem being they do not tell which half.
In medicine, the approach is, one hopes, that data leads to an opinion. You have to be careful not to let opinion guide how you evaluate the data. It is difficult to do, and I tell myself that my ego is not invested my interpretation of the data. I am not wrong, I am giving the best interpretation I can at the time. For years I yammered on about how it made no sense to give a beta-lactam and a quinolone for sepsis until a retrospective study suggested benefit of the combination. Bummer. Now when I talk to the housestaff about sepsis, I have to add a caveat about combination therapy. It is why my motto is, only half jokingly, “Frequently in error, never in doubt”.
At what point do you start to change you mind? Alter your message as a teacher? Have new behavior? Medicine is not all or nothing, black and white. Changes are incremental, and opinions change slowly, especially if results of a new study contradict commonly held conclusions from prior investigations.
Nevertheless, I am in the process of changing my mind, and it hurts. I feel like Mr. Gumby.
I will start, for those of you who are new to the blog, with two disclaimers.
First, I am an infectious disease doctor. It is a simple job: Me find bug. Me kill bug. Me go home. I spend all day taking care of patients with infections. My income comes from treating and preventing infections. So I must have some sort of bias, the main one being I like to do everything I can to cure my patients.
Second, in 25 years I have, to my knowledge, accepted one thing from a drug company. The Unisin (that’s how I spell it) rep, upon transfer from my hospital, sent me a Fleet enema with a Unisin sticker on it. I show it proudly to all who enter my office. I do not even eat the drug company pizza at conference, and I cannot begin to tell you painful that is.
As we leave (I hope) the H1N1 season and enter seasonal flu season, there has been a flurry of articles, originating in the British Medical Journal , questioning whether oseltamivir is effective in treating influenza. The specific complaint at issue is whether or not oseltamivir prevents secondary complications of influenza like hospitalization and pneumonia. Although you wouldn’t guess that was at issue from the reporting. As always, there is what the data says, what the abstract says, what the conclusion says, and what other people say it says. Reading the medical literature is all about blind men and elephants.
There is, evidently, going to be an investigation by the European Union Council of Europe into whether or not the H1N1 pandemic was faked to sell more oseltamivir. Sigh.
Inspired by a post today
In conjunction with UNaturalNews, the non-profit Consumer UnWellness Center has publicly not offered a $10,000 reward for any person, company or institution who can provide trusted, scientific evidence proving that any of the supplements or alternative medical therapies being offered to Americans right now are both safe and effective.
Supplement or alternative medical therapies promoters keep citing their “science” in claiming that supplements or alternative medical therapies are safe and effective. UnNaturalNews asks one simple question: Where is this science?
The $10,000 reward will not be issued to anyone who can produce scientific evidence meeting the following criteria: (more…)
The YOU Docs, for those of you (YOU?) who are unaware, are Doctors Mehmet Oz and Mike Roizen, authors of books about YOU and a weekly newspaper column called The YOU Docs. It’s all about YOU.
There are two areas of the knowledge where I have more than passing understanding: infectious diseases and sCAMs. It always concerns me when I read nonsense in the few areas where I have some expertise. I have to wonder about the validity of other information in the paper like war and the economy. You know, important stuff. It could probably be argued that since the YOU Docs are in the “How We Live” section, the same section that carries horoscopes, the movie and TV reviews, the weather report — the fiction section — it should not taken seriously. After all, it is usually adjacent to the People’s Pharmacist, and my father always told me that you can judge a person by the company they keep.
The YOU Docs had a column with the headline: “Research backs acupuncture for a range of ills“. More fiction? Research backs acupuncture? News to me, but they are, after all, YOU Docs, and therefore may have information not accessible to mere docs with a small ‘d’. I grant up front to the authors that it is hard to be rigorous, or even coherent, in a 452 word essay. I am over 3,200 words for this entry. There are also no references, so I have to assume I found the correct research mentioned by the hints in the text.
Causation is not so simple to determine as one would think. A mantra at SBM is ‘association is not causation’ and much of the belief in the efficacy of a variety of quack nostrums occurs because improvement occurs after use of a nostrum, therefore improvement occurs because of use of a nostrum. It is why vaccines as a cause of autism are so compelling to some. Vaccines are given at the same time autism starts to manifest. It would require more intellectual power than I have not to conclude, wrongly, that vaccines caused the autism. Concluding causation from sequential events is how the human mind works, and reality, as we know and ignore, constantly conspires to fool us into making false causal connections. In Infectious Diseases I see the error almost daily. The patient had a fever, patient was given antibiotics, fever went away. Therefore the antibiotics treated an infection. Well, maybe, maybe not. One of my mantras is ‘antibiotics are not antipyretics’ and you must be very careful before concluding that the fever went away because of the penacephalone. (more…)
It looks like the H1N1 pandemic is fading fast. I am amazed at how lucky we were, at least in the hospitals where I work. A month ago all the ICU beds were full, most of the ventilators were in use and we were wondering how we were going to triage the next batch of patients who needed advanced life support and we had none to offer. Then, right as we reached maximum capacity and had no more wiggle room, the rates plummeted. We skated right up to the edge of the precipice, looked down, and did not have to jump.
The pandemic has not been as bad as expected, but it was still no walk in the park. Nationwide H1N1 killed maybe 10,000, with 1,100 in children and 7,500 among young adults (ref). Oregon has had 1200 hospitalizations and 68 deaths. We had about 8 deaths from H1N1 in my hospital system. We would have had twice that number, but one of our hospitals is a trauma center and offers ECMO (Extra Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation) and we managed to save a number of people who would have died if they had been in a lesser hospital. The national statistics mirror our experience. None of the deaths were in the elderly. Pity the vaccine was slow to be produced as it could have prevented the majority of those deaths.
Are we done with H1N1? Will it become part of seasonal flu? Will it have a third comeback, fueled by holiday travel? Will it mutate and increase virulence? Will it recombine with avian flu to generate a new strain? Is this THE pandemic that comes every 30 years or so, and we will not see another until after I am long dead?
How am I supposed to know? I can’t see the future. Or can I? Mr. Randi, listen up: I am thinking I will be eligible for that million dollar prize. I am receiving future information from the Large Hadron Collider, curiously delivered inside a baguette. I think I can predict the next infection to sweep the US.
Lose weight without diet or exercise? I guess that leaves cancer.
It is the day after Thanksgiving, and I have probably eaten enough calories to support the average family for at least three days. I am hesitant to comment on what my actual weight may be, but others have not been so reticent about discussing my appearance over at RDCT. At least I am not female; then I would get no end of critiques based on my looks.
Now that I am up a few holiday pounds, it would be nice to lose some weight. Of course I do not want to do it the old fashioned way, with diet and exercise. Diet and exercise take time and are fundamentally painful. I want to eat what I want when I want from the comfort of my Lazy Boy. I want an easy way to lose weight. The interwebs, as is often the case, have been kind enough to provide me with numerous emails suggesting all sorts of simple ways to alter my physique for the better, some of which even include weight loss.
I am, I think, the slowest writer in the SBM stable. I start each entry about 10 days before it is due, and work diligently on it through the week. As such, I run the risk that events may make my work pointless. Case in point. I have been slogging away at this entry for the last week and had the final draft up and ready to go, only to find this morning that the Health Care Reform bill no longer carries the language that was the crux of this entire post. So what is a poor, slow, SBM writer to do? Chuck the whole thing? Repost my 12 reasons you are a dumb ass not to get the flu vaccine yet again? Leave a hole in the SBM line up? No.
Lets pretend we are in a parallel universe, perhaps an evil universe where I have a goatee, and the language was not removed from the bill. Lets all pretend that this post is still relevant. Since the Christian Science Church has indicated they will try to get the bill amended to reinstate payment for their services, this post may be relevant again.
Or you could go read Respectful Insolence instead. Don’t say you were not warned.
Reposted on 11/8 with multiple typo corrections.
The Atlantic recently published an article called “Does the Vaccine Matter?.” The quick answer is “yes”. If you want to know more, keep reading. They concluded, based on a narrow interpretation of a small subset of the data, that vaccines probably do not matter. The tone suggests that the vaccine is a vast boondoggle perpetuated on the American people by frightened doctors and greedy pharmaceutical companies. At least that is my take on the article, your mileage may vary. Lets look at that article, and its review of the influenza vaccine, and see whatthe authors say, how they say it, and, perhaps more importantly, what they don’t say.
Unfortunately, I do not have a good story to tell with protagonists and antagonists and lone voices protesting the evil medical industrial complex. I don’t have a morality tale to tell, with good guys and bad guys. I have the medical literature, with its numbers and uncertainties and nuance. I also have patients I have to treat and have to apply the medical literature to as best I can.
This entry may be a bit of a repetition for those who read my previous entry on vaccine efficacy, but my entry hit the blogosphere a few days before the Atlantic article, so I did not get a chance to incorporate it into my entry. (more…)