Posts Tagged Galileo

Differences Of Opinion

After my fairly recent awakening from shruggieness  (i.e. a condition in which one is largely unaware of or uninterested in CAM) I decided to discuss my concerns about pseudoscience with my friends. One particular friend is a nationally recognized physician who believes in the importance of accurate health information and the promotion of science. However, he sees no urgent need to warn people against snake oil, and so long as it’s correctly labeled he doesn’t seem to mind it co-existing with scientific alternatives.

My friend and I had dinner a few weeks ago, and our conversation was both animated and disappointing. I somehow felt inadequate in conveying my objections (both ethical and scientific) to the promotion of pseudoscience. My best explanations were met with cheerful rebuttals, and while not intellectually convincing to me, those retorts satisfied my friend just fine. I guess the bottom line was that he was more interested in maintaining his position than reconsidering it… and so it left me feeling rather frustrated and a little sad.

Posted in: Science and Medicine

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Prior Probability: the Dirty Little Secret of “Evidence-Based Alternative Medicine”—Continued Again

After the previous posting on the Bayesian approach to clinical trial data, several new comments made it clear to me that more needed to be said. This posting addresses those comments and adds a few more observations regarding the unfortunate consequences of EBM’s neglect of prior probability as it applies to “complementary and alternative medicine” (“CAM”).†

The “Galileo gambit” and the statistics gambit

Reader durvit wrote:

A very interesting example, for a number of people, might be estimating the prior probability for Marshall and Warren’s early work on Helicobacter pylori and its impact on gastroduodenal management. I frequently have Marshall quoted to me as a variation on the Galileo gambit, so establishing whether he and Warren would have been helped or hindered by Bayesian techniques would be useful.

This suggestion raises a couple of issues. First, the “Galileo gambit” regarding Marshall and Warren’s discovery is a straw man (as durvit seems to have surmised). (more…)

Posted in: Homeopathy, Medical Academia, Medical Ethics, Politics and Regulation, Science and Medicine

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