This is a story about a story and a story or two within that story. The first story is one of faulty epidemiology – data collection in a war zone. The first inside one is how medical news and journals affect not only national news, but are being used as political weaponry, to affect elections , and to change history.
Within that story is yet another – how editors contribute to fabrication, accepting or refusing to recognize fraud and misinformation. Yet another is that one cannot change some opinions, even after showing that the original information on which they were based was false. Sound familiar? We’ve been illustrating the point in classes for years.
The Iraq death studies. In 2004, weeks before the US presidential election, the journal, The Lancet published a study from a group at Johns Hopkins University, of Iraqi civilian deaths since the 2003 invasion (Lancet I). The results were unseemly high; a UN group estimated the deaths to be about one tenth of the Lancet’s report. The allied forces were still receiving approval for deposing Saddam Hussein, and the world press did not publicize them.
Then, 2-3 weeks before the 2006 US national congressional elections, with the Iraqi war wearing on and US and the world public tiring of stalemate and casualties, Lancet published a follow-up study (Lancet II) by the same group, concluding that in the years 2003-2006, Iraqi civilian war related deaths exceeded 600,000. It was shocking, made headline newspaper and television news. The study had such a significant impact partly because of where it appeared. The Lancet, despite its spotty record for off-beat articles, is revered by the public and the press. If the article’s publicity did not create a wave of political disapproval, it at least helped whip up the waves of discontent, washing in a major change in the Congress. Criticism of the study at the time seemed drowned out by its publicity. But a recent repeat study of civilian Iraqi deaths brings new light on the Lancet II study.