Call me naive, but I did not expect the volume or the emotional depth of the responses to the Iraqi civilian death post. I thought many would respond to the new NEJMed survey as I did; wondering about the validity of the previous surveys and recognizing that they have a validity problem. And, that there is a question about what is printed in major journals, from unexpected sources. I did not mean that studies such as Lancet II not be printed. I stated that it should not have been printed in a first line journal for the general medical public. It could have been printed in a 2nd or 3rd line specialty journal where its methods and conclusions could have been debated and reforms shaped by colleagues. I find that hints and clues to errors in pseudoscientific reports mostly lie in the methods section. But questioning a study’s validity can involve more than just a knowledge of the methods and recalculation of the data. Because the “CAM” movement has redefined the borders of the playing field as well as the rules of the game, the entire environment of the scientific system surrounding implausible or unusual reports has to be examined – this goes beyond limits of methods, and includes motivations, funding, characters, and subtexts.
In developing criteria for estimating plausibility (prior probability) the most important criterion of course is consistency and consilience with established knowledge. But there are more. One can increase the effectiveness of investigation by using indicators not presently included in “Evidence Based Medicine” or in science, but that are used in criminology (previous arrests, convictions,) business (trustworthiness, profit vs loss,) and ideology and politics (elevation of the trivial, manipulation of the system; example: sectarian medicine.)